Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Lesson of Defeat: Obama Comes Out Punching


CHICAGO — Senator Barack Obama woke up on Wednesday talking of his delegate lead and of taking the fight to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. But after defeats in two of the most populous states, he also sounded like a chastened candidate in search of his lost moment.

Mr. Obama once again failed to administer an electoral coup de grĂ¢ce, and so allowed a tenacious rival to elude his grasp. Now, after appearing nearly invincible just last week, he faces questions about his toughness and vulnerabilities — never mind seven weeks of tramping across Pennsylvania, the site of the next big primary showdown. His goal is to prove he can win states vital to a Democratic victory in November.

In Ohio and Texas, he drew vast and adoring crowds, yet he came up short on primary day, just as he did in New Hampshire in early January. Mrs. Clinton’s attack on his readiness to serve as commander in chief seemed to resonate with some Texas voters.

In Ohio, Mr. Obama failed to make much headway with voters who live paycheck to paycheck and feel the economic walls closing in, a troublesome sign as he heads to Pennsylvania.

But his challenge now is about more than demographics. He must reassure supporters, and party leaders who had started to rally to his side, that he can absorb the lessons of Tuesday’s defeats. And he faces a challenge of rebounding as quickly as he did from his loss in New Hampshire.

Flying from Texas back home to Chicago on Wednesday morning, Mr. Obama delivered the message that he intended to counterpunch forcefully.

His campaign aides on Wednesday urged Mrs. Clinton to release her tax returns from 2006, as well as her papers from her years as first lady, which Mr. Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod, described as “secreted in the Clinton library.”

“She’s made the argument that she’s thoroughly vetted, in contrast to me,” Mr. Obama said to reporters aboard his campaign plane. “I think it’s important to examine that argument.”

Over the last year, though, Mr. Obama has struggled to deliver that examination. He picks up the cudgel, and then sets it down. The problem is that Mr. Obama has built a campaign persona as the man of hope, a young candidate with oratorical skills who promises to build bridges across the ideological divide.

If he indulges his inner Chicago pol, formed in a city where politics is conducted with crowbars, he risks taking the shine off. But his advisers say he has little choice.

Mr. Obama took aim on Wednesday at Mrs. Clinton’s claim that she is a seasoned hand in foreign policy. “What exactly is this foreign experience that she’s claiming?” he said. “I know she talks about visiting 80 countries. It is not clear. Was she negotiating treaties or agreements or was she handling crises during this period of time?

“My sense is the answer’s no.”

Mr. Obama, finally, has tactical worries of his own. He won in states like Missouri by running up large margins in cities and suburbs. But in Ohio, he appeared outorganized.

Gov. Ted Strickland, who endorsed Mrs. Clinton, advised her to encircle the cities. Mr. Strickland led her deep into his base in the hills of Appalachia in southern Ohio; Bill Clinton also passed through the region when he was president. Mrs. Clinton ran up big margins in those rural counties.

Mr. Obama retains significant advantages, including his lead among pledged delegates and a record-setting fund-raising operation. And he bridled at questions on Wednesday about his difficulties attracting working-class and middle-class support, noting his progress in that regard.

“I don’t buy into this demographic argument,” Mr. Obama said. “In Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia and many of these states, we’ve won the white vote and the blue-collar voters. I think it is very important not to somehow focus on a handful of states because the Clintons say that those states are important and the other states are unimportant.”

His advisers pointed out that the Clinton campaign had built up 20-point leads in the polls in Ohio and Texas just two weeks ago and that Mrs. Clinton’s tough tactics and negative advertisements forced the Obama campaign upon the shoals.

But Mr. Obama is hardly a by-the-bootstraps insurgent. He had a decided financial advantage in both states, outspending the Clinton campaign more than two to one, and he could count on the support of powerful unions and the endorsement of a string of big-city mayors.

“I’ll tell you what I would do now,” said Mayor Michael B. Coleman of Columbus, Ohio, who had endorsed Mr. Obama. “I would start to draw contrasts with her. I don’t think Obama has focused on that, and there are opportunities to be explored there.”

Mr. Obama seems likely to take a tougher stance toward Mrs. Clinton, if only because he saw how well such tactics worked against him. When the Clinton campaign attacked on multiple fronts last week, he sometimes sounded defensive, occasionally talking at his audiences rather than with them.

“There’s no magic bullet that hurt him; it was a series of bullets,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic consultant. “She reduced his charisma and forced voters back to reality.”

For now, Mr. Obama and his advisers are huddled in Chicago, plotting strategy.

Asked on the plane whether he and Mrs. Clinton might make a good ticket, he smiled. “It’s very premature,” he said, “to start talking about a joint ticket.”

McCain wins Republican nomination

John McCain has won the Republican party's nomination to run for US president with projected poll wins in Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island and Texas.
His closest rival, Mike Huckabee, has dropped out of the race and
His closest rival, Mike Huckabee, has dropped out of the race and pledged to support Mr McCain's candidacy.

The Democratic contest remains on a knife-edge, with Hillary Clinton projected to win Ohio and Rhode Island.

Barack Obama is projected to win in Vermont, while in the Texas Democratic poll the result is too close to call.

Mrs Clinton's projected wins in Rhode Island and Ohio appear to have ended Mr Obama's month-long winning streak.

Mr McCain's victories in all four states take him over the threshold of 1,191 delegates needed to claim the candidacy at the party's national convention in September.


Stand up with me, my friends, stand up and fight for America - for her strength, her ideals, and her future
John McCain


The result represents a remarkable comeback after his campaign was all but written off following setbacks last summer.
Speaking to supporters in Dallas, Texas, he said the most important part of the campaign now lay ahead, in which he must "make a respectful, determined and convincing case to the American people" to pick him over the Democratic candidate in November.

Mr McCain went on to outline the challenges facing the nation, including the war in Iraq and the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taleban.

He also pledged a campaign that avoided "false promises", and appealed for voters to "stand up and fight for America, for her strength, her ideals and her future".


Mrs Clinton insists she can go all the way to the White House
Clinton's campaign ad

He will go to the White House on Wednesday for lunch with George W Bush, when he is expected to receive the president's endorsement.

Conceding the race at a rally in Irving, Texas, Mr Huckabee said: "It's now important that we turn our attention not to what could have been or what we wanted to have been but what now must be, and that is a united party."

Both Democratic candidates called Mr McCain to congratulate him on sealing the Republican nomination.

For the Democrats, a total of 370 delegates to the nominating party convention in August were at stake in Tuesday's four races.

The race was still too close to call in Texas, the day's biggest prize with 228 delegates up for grabs, including 67 in caucuses held after the primary vote.

Mr Obama had 1,386 delegates to Mrs Clinton's 1,276 going into Tuesday's contests, the AP calculated. A total of 2,025 is needed to secure the Democratic Party's nomination.

'Coming back'

Because delegates are divided proportionally, Mrs Clinton needs landslide victories on Tuesday and beyond to catch up with her rival.


She told cheering crowds in Columbus, Ohio, that she was determined to stay in the race and looked forward to continuing the debate with Mr Obama "in the weeks ahead".

"For everyone here in Ohio and across America who has ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you," she said.

Mrs Clinton also pointed to Ohio's status as a state which had picked the winning presidential nominee in every contest in recent history.

"You know what they say - as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Well, this nation's coming back and so is this campaign."

Between the nationwide Super Tuesday contests on 5 February and the 4 March polls, Mr Obama won 11 contests in succession, giving him a lead over Mrs Clinton in the delegate count.

Addressing supporters in San Antonio, Texas, Mr Obama congratulated Mrs Clinton on running a "hard-fought race" but pointed out that he still held the advantage.

"No matter what happens tonight, we have nearly the same delegate lead as we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination," he said.

Mr Obama also used his speech to attack Mr McCain's policies on Iraq, warning that he would lead the country on the same course as Mr Bush had followed.

Mr Obama added that the result from Texas might not be known until Wednesday. He spent twice as much as Mrs Clinton on TV adverts in the state, including some in Spanish.

According to exit polls for the Associated Press news agency, Hispanics cast nearly a third of the election day votes in Texas - up from a quarter in 2004. In previous contests this year, they have favoured Mrs Clinton.

African-American voters - who have heavily supported Mr Obama - accounted for about 20% of the votes cast in Texas, the AP said, about the same as four years ago.

The economy was the most important issue for Democratic voters in all four states, especially Ohio, according to exit polls.

Those polls also suggested Mrs Clinton was doing well among white, blue-collar and older voters in Ohio, which may indicate she has halted Mr Obama's advance into those groups, her core base until recent contests.

Ahead of the day's voting, the New York senator and former first lady played down suggestions she was facing a make-or-break moment.

The BBC's Kevin Connolly, in Ohio's state capital, Columbus, says the struggle between the two senators remains fierce and close, and it is far from certain that America will get the clear outcome from these latest battles that it craves.